tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-62888362024-02-18T23:33:54.091-05:00Feedback Governs DynamicsMusing from a simulation scientist on how to use the powers of reason and technology to make a brighter future.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-11813868958668614062014-10-14T21:30:00.000-04:002014-10-30T10:55:49.241-04:00#ChallengeCorruption<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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This summer a remarkable thing happened. In just 30-days, the ALS Association <a href="http://www.alsa.org/news/media/press-releases/ibc-initial-commitment.html" target="_blank">received more than $100 million</a> in donations in connection with the Ice Bucket Challenge. More important than the money however, was the millions of people that learned more about this terrible disease.<br />
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Yet there is an even more devastating disease in America, and its name is corruption. As beneficial as the #ALSIceBucketChallenge was, it only mitigated some of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/20/lawmakers-ice-bucket-challenge_n_5696290.html" target="_blank">the damage done by a Congress</a> that votes to cut research towards curing <b>all</b> diseases. All the while using a perfectly legal system of corruption to exchange campaign funds for billions in crony spending, tax loopholes, and other special interest welfare.<br />
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We need to challenge this corruption before it poisons the lifeblood of our Republic any further and we need to do it now. Here is how:<br />
<ol>
<li>Visit <a href="https://mayday.us/" target="_blank">mayday.us</a> and make one small donation to the citizen-funded SuperPAC dedicated to <b>ending</b> all SuperPACs</li>
<li>Take a bill equal to what you contributed and write #ChallengeCorruption with https://mayday.us below it (you can also use a printer with <a href="https://docs.google.com/uc?id=0B3aidE2UdpXATWI3T19kUTBMOEE&export=download" target="_blank">this template </a> and <a href="http://www.stampstampede.org/pages/faq" target="_blank">yes it is legal</a>!)</li>
<li>Take a picture or video like the one above and explain why you are challenging corruption</li>
<li>Post it online or email it with the tag #ChallengeCorruption</li>
<li>Call upon at least three others to respond within twenty-four hours</li>
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That's it. It really is that simple. This is a problem only the people can solve, so join in, and lets take our democracy back!Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-30842424049612498962013-03-20T23:50:00.000-04:002014-10-12T23:40:37.278-04:00The art of empty rhetoricOp-eds on scientific issues are perhaps the single biggest disgrace to the world of journalism. Science is not open to opinion. There is certainly freedom to interpret the bounds of uncertainty given a particular analysis, but this is by no means equivalent to the rhetoric used in a typical op-ed. Climate change continues to be the most classic case of what happens when the two worlds of science and opinion collide.<br />
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I've already written too many posts on this as it stands, but everytime I see a major news source publish propaganda like <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/03/06/as-carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-to-rise-global-temperatures-are-not-following-suit/" target="_blank">this Op-Ed</a> by James Taylor, my frustration is ignited anew. In it, James repeats the latest popular refrain that global average temperatures haven't changed since 1995 while CO2 continues to climb. Never mind that there is already a fantastic website where you can pick any time interval you like to draw a trendline using real climate data and show any range of <a href="http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1880/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1880/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1973/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000.75/to:2013/trend" target="_blank">warming, flat, or even cooling trend</a> you fancy, it is the <b>climate system as a whole </b>that really matters.<br />
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Ever since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy" target="_blank">hockey stick controversy</a>, climate change deniers have narrowly focused on changing this single narrative, while ignoring the massive changes underway across the whole system of our planet. <a href="http://www.livescience.com/25125-polar-ice-loss-accelerating.html" target="_blank">Permanent ice loss</a>, <a href="http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification" target="_blank">CO2 acidification of the oceans</a>,<a href="http://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/pdf_archive/cape_halkett_4web.pdf" target="_blank"> permafrost melt</a>, and <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/1024.abstract" target="_blank">vegetative migration</a> are just a few of the systemic changes taking place right now, and each on its own poses huge risks for catastrophic impacts on both our environment and our economy.<br />
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Given that global average surface temperatures have not changed much in recent years, is it possible that something else in the great system of the earth is giving us a temporary reprieve? Perhaps we are just melting the ice in the cooler? Sure we have a pretty big cooler and all, but what happens when that ice supply disappears? How much energy has it been offsetting?<br />
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So for fun, here's a back of the envelope calculation of what happens when you melt <a href="http://www.livescience.com/25125-polar-ice-loss-accelerating.html" target="_blank">4,260 metric gigatons of ice</a> between Greenland and Antarctica from 1992 to 2011. Given the enthalpy of fusion alone (so disregarding any warming of sub-zero ice), it takes <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enthalpy_of_fusion" target="_blank">333.55 kJ for 1 kg of ice to melt</a>. This means that <span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19.1875px;">1.4×10</span><sup style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit; line-height: 1em;">21</sup><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> Joules have been absorbed over a period that is just a few years longer than our period of supposedly flat temperature change. To put this in perspective, this is like shutting </span></span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)" style="font-family: inherit; line-height: 19.1875px;" target="_blank">the sun off</a><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> for the entire planet for 139 minutes. To put that further in perspective, given that March is the equinox and looking at the average daily temperature change (with equal parts sun and night) in a relatively clear sky, mid-</span></span><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">latitude</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> region like Fort Worth, TX, we see a mean of about <a href="http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/daily/USTX0474?climoMonth=3">.56 degree </a></span></span><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"><a href="http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/daily/USTX0474?climoMonth=3">Celsius</a></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> change per hour. So, if all of this adds up, just part of the ice that has been melting in our global cooler has helped offset roughly 1.3</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">°</span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19.1875px;"> C in change over the last nineteen years. For those so inclined, </span><a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnaidE2UdpXAdGRfUEs4bTJ2YzdOLUJKU3NkZWRKbmc&usp=sharing" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19.1875px;" target="_blank">here is a spreadsheet</a><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit; line-height: 19.1875px;"> walking through the conversion.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">Now it's highly unlikely that permanent ice loss alone has prevented 1.3</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">°</span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> C in warming. Most early reviewers of this post suggested that relative to the total energy at play in the earth's heat exchange with the sun and space, even such massive numbers as 1.4 </span></span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px;">zettaJoules may disappear in the wash. Yet another</span><a href="http://news.discovery.com/earth/oceans/ocean-holds-answer-reduced-warming-130411.htm" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; line-height: 19.1875px;"> recent article</a><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> examining deep ocean temperatures suggests that heat-sinks like the deep ocean and permanent ice loss are likely having an impact on balancing surface temperatures in the midst of accelerating warming. With some additional back of the envelope calculations on the volume of seawater, I'm sure we could hit magnitudes on par with the total energy cycle of the earth. </span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">A temperature change of 1.3</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">°</span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> C might not seem like much, but in reality we are trying to prevent a further 1.5</span></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">°</span><span style="background-color: #f9f9f9;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;"> C change, after which the risks for </span></span><span style="line-height: 19.1875px;">catastrophic impacts to our planet and economy begin to skyrocket. </span></span>Are these deniers really so short sighted that they are willing to bet it all just so we can continue using a finite resource that will ultimately run out anyway? Don't we need innovation right now? Are we really going to let ourselves be paralyzed from action just because a powerful industry mongers the threat of a rise in short term energy costs when it is just as likely to bring energy costs down in the long term? Are we really going to let ourselves be held hostage by a single industry, again?<br />
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Instead of using this temporary and perfectly explainable reprieve to try and deny the entire system of climate change, we should be making the most of this opportunity to try and avoid the worst of the risks. For more on the trade-offs of delaying action and the impacts on risk, check out <a href="http://www.runthemodel.com/models/run.php?popup=1&id=1339" target="_blank">this simple model</a> where <b>you</b> can explore different strategies for yourself.<br />
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For a truly in-depth look at how the earth as a whole is changing watch the following NOVA series in its entirety. It's not only a great testament to the scale and complexity of our planet, but also to mankind's ability to measure and understand it. It this level of innovation that an organization like NASA delivers that we so desperately need. If we can build an Apollo program back in the 60's when technology was really just in its infancy, how many Apollo scale programs could we do right now to take on all the of the problems in front of us? We have the tools. All we lack, is the courage and the strength to break free from this collective state of apathy we find ourselves in today.<br />
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<div style="background: transparent; color: grey; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; margin-top: 5px; text-align: center; width: 512px;">
Watch <a href="http://video.pbs.org/video/2334144059" style="color: #4eb2fe !important; font-weight: normal !important; height: 13px; text-decoration: none !important;" target="_blank">Earth from Space</a> on PBS. See more from <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/" style="color: #4eb2fe !important; font-weight: normal !important; height: 13px; text-decoration: none !important;" target="_blank">NOVA.</a></div>
Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-83896117529469482822013-01-25T22:38:00.000-05:002013-03-21T00:25:22.892-04:00Disruptive TechnologyA recent series started by Chunka Mui on Google's driverless car is looking to be somewhat a vindication of a few previous posts I made including <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2009/05/hang-on-get-ready-and-go.html">Hang On, Get Ready, and Go</a> and <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/07/riding-exponential.html">Riding the Exponential</a>. In the <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2013/01/22/fasten-your-seatbelts-googles-driverless-car-is-worth-trillions/" target="_blank">first story of the series</a> Chunka lays out the case for why a driverless car is far more than just some science fiction novelty. With sweeping impacts like reducing accidents, wasted time and energy, and the total number of cars all by 90%, the driverless car is certain to be just as disruptive as the original automobile. Cost savings on this scale may seem unbelievable at first blush, but Chunka does a great job of breaking down the numbers in some "back of the envelope" estimates.<br />
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The second story, <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2013/01/24/googles-trillion-dollar-driverless-car-part-2-the-ripple-effects/" target="_blank">The Ripple Effects</a>, is where it starts to get even more interesting. The impacts of broad adoption of the driverless car could turn many industries on their head if they aren't prepared. From car manufactures to emergency rooms, insurers to ambulance chasers, huge revenue streams would dry up within years. Yet, one industry's loss is another one's gain. By freeing up all this capital locked up in mitigating risk and compensating inefficiency we could not only improve the quality of life for individuals, we could create whole new trillion dollar markets.<br />
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Sounds great, right? Well reading the comments yields some interesting insights into how people perceive change on these scales. While most are generally intrigued, many have significant reservations with some downright trolling to say that such an endeavour is hopeless. I was impressed to see Chunka responding to each argument with calm clarity when I felt like asking; how can you be so blind?!<br />
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It's true that I'm an eternal optimist, yet at the same time when I look at mankind's remarkable history this optimism isn't just some baseless belief. I'm not sure when we became so impatient with progress. Perhaps it's because some things turned out to be much more complex than we expected. We have yet to find a cure for cancer, robots have yet to take care of our every need, and we still find many massive problems growing only worse with no clear way forward. Does that mean they'll never happen and that we should simply give up?<br />
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I've argued that these setbacks and delays should only motivate us further, because we now have the tools for taking on problems of every scale. From exploring the most fundamental of particles to looking across the entire universe back to moments just after all of creation, mankind is capable of many seemingly "impossible" things. To say that we will never have driverless cars is just as short sighted as those that said we'd sail off the edge of the earth if we sent our ships too far or that we'd never get man to the moon.<br />
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I suppose we've always had our naysayers throughout history. I just thought that as progress marched on at its ever faster clip that we'd get over the pessimism and realize our true collective potential. Perhaps time will still tell. I just hope there are enough optimists to keep us going until then.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-27255136614675325702012-11-16T16:11:00.000-05:002013-05-31T13:39:39.224-04:00Grokking the HyperloopI've made no secret of my "man-crush" on Elon Musk. As a former mechanical engineer, I view his engineering track record as nothing short of astonishing. From developing the <a href="http://www.teslamotors.com/">best car in world</a> to the first entirely non-government <a href="http://www.spacex.com/"><span id="goog_1579946075"></span>space rockets<span id="goog_1579946076"></span></a>, Elon has set the bar for aspiring engineers. His latest brainstorm is on a new mode of transportation, which he refers to as the "<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musks-hyper-loop-2012-9">hyperloop</a>". There has been a lot of speculation about what the idea is, but most have settled on some form of train in a tube. I have my own pet theory though that I just had to publish before Elon sets us straight.<br />
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My thinking is a fairly natural extension of the electric car. I've already been advocating that to solve transportation issues we need to seriously consider redesigning how highways operate. I've had significant doubts regarding the viability of public transportation in a country like the United States. Public transportation is certainly the best solution for dense urban environments, but it quickly falls down as density declines. With hundreds of billions on the line for high speed trains, I can't help wonder if there is a better, more technology advanced solution.<br />
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I've <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2009/04/modeling-traffic.html">modeled traffic some in the past</a> and can now clearly show how with a mixed global and local optimization solution we could eliminate traffic on highways, ensuring the maximum throughput safely at all times. Taking these ideas a little further we approach my thoughts on the hyperloop. One of the main issues with electric cars is highway driving. It's both the place of least efficient driving and longest duration. What if to address the range issue with electric cars we just brought power to highways? While we're at it, why don't we get rid of rolling friction and deliver that power through rails? Similar to how those trucks used to service railroads can drop down wheels for travel on rails, we could have cars that deploy wheels on these new powered highway tracks. You could still have all the braking and accelerating benefits of rubber tires since you can just drop down and use them anytime they are needed.<br />
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Taking this one step further for long direct routes, these rail highways could be enclosed in a tube where the air is forced along at the global travel speed. Now we've eliminated both air drag and the rolling friction. This would allow electric cars to travel at much higher speeds all the while maintaining the efficiency of mass transportation. Now slap solar panels on top of the hyperloop and you have a completely self sufficient, rapid mode of transportation. I do have concerns with getting to the speeds Elon is after (faster than a jet), but I do think the overall simplicity and convenience would be time savings enough. Below is a crude sketch of my concept idea. Now we'll just have to see what Elon comes up with.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ0JZ6p-HxLhZkZDpNsLrsMOFJ1BdWDEZtnH79ew-vWwxxE7LU9Fe4gmCZjilptZnDGGWgkkuucDD-QH7P8eldtzT2XhAqUSYBGqknBZ_gVgZgsJAnOh0xBsv2cwl7I2dOSvG9/s1600/the+hyperloop.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZ0JZ6p-HxLhZkZDpNsLrsMOFJ1BdWDEZtnH79ew-vWwxxE7LU9Fe4gmCZjilptZnDGGWgkkuucDD-QH7P8eldtzT2XhAqUSYBGqknBZ_gVgZgsJAnOh0xBsv2cwl7I2dOSvG9/s640/the+hyperloop.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-9448908923241675412012-08-30T23:22:00.001-04:002013-03-21T00:21:33.468-04:00Greatest hitsI've been a reminiscing a bit tonight. I didn't do so good in keeping up with this blog, but with nobody really reading it, there didn't seem to be much point. Yet it still captures a good part of the journey that I've been on for the last eight years plus.<br />
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This weekend I hope to finally turn the switch on an idea that has essentially taken a decade to evolve. What started out as a mission to help create the <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.ca/2004/01/to-start-with-i-need-to-clarify-for.html?m=0">global mind</a> has now become a mission to create a viable <a href="http://thefoundationparty.org/">third political party</a> in the United States. I honestly don't know anymore if I'm just crazy or if this really is actually a brilliant idea. None of my friends have been (so far) ready to call me crazy, but there has also been a fare share of skepticism.<br />
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These questions have only helped further refine what the Foundation Party is all about, but at the same time it makes me wonder if this will ever really take off in the way that my mind seems to imagine it to. All I know is that I simply can't wait any longer. As I <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.ca/2004/02/ok-so-this-blog-is-growing-cobwebs.html?m=1">look back</a> at all that I've thought through and all that <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/07/riding-exponential.html">has happened</a> and <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2008/09/what-we-have-to-do-in-next-5-years.html">needs to happen</a> the world, I've finally reached the point where I'm ready to go all in.<br />
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It's a gamble for sure. I'm now a father times two and with a wife raising our children I can ill afford screwing things up royally. At the same time, I think I'll simply lose it if I don't at least give this all a shot.<br />
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So here it goes. Here goes a revolution. Let it fail or let it succeed, just let me find some kind of path for doing what it is that I truly feel that I'm meant to do. I once read a Quaker story about how if a feeling is just fleeting, it is nothing more than an impulse. Yet if there is something persistent, something that simply won't go away, but rather grows ever stronger. It is divine. Not in any strictly biblical sense, but rather something part of the wonder and awe in the universe. That is ultimately how I feel about the Foundation Party.<br />
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It's not longer just a concept, but rather an obsession. Something that is both so real in my mind and yet so unreal in the real world. Does that make it impossible? Perhaps, but I guess I'm tired of the question. In a few more weeks I think I'll have my answer.<br />
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Wish me luck. And if you actually get what I'm talking about, please, please help me.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-22419492316751516092012-04-12T16:42:00.000-04:002013-03-21T00:24:21.065-04:00What is the climate fight really about?A couple of recent news stories on climate change highlight the growing influence of opinion over reason at time when the depth of scientific knowledge grows ever faster. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17611404">first story</a> covered the completion of a huge study of <b>global</b> temperatures and CO2 levels over the last 20,000 years. I've actually looked at the 420K years of data from Antarctica <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2008/05/co2-not-pollutant.html">in some detail</a> and know just how clear a <i>correlation</i> exists between temperature and CO2.<br />
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The big remaining question has been: which is <i>causing</i> which and how significant is the impact? What's amazing about this new global study is how clear the rise in CO2 <b>precedes</b> the rise in temperature (see charts below), basically providing irrefutable evidence of the direction and significance of causation. Not only that, they are able to show how a rise of around 30ppm kicked off a whole feedback loop of climate change and CO2 releases that brought an end to the last ice-age. Over the entire 20,000 year period CO2 levels rose just over 100ppm. To put this into perspective, mankind has raised CO2 levels 100ppm in just 100 years! I don't think it takes a scientist to find this alarming especially since these levels are also 30% higher and increasing 200 times faster than at <b>any</b> time in the last 650,000 years. While I don't think it should be necessary to conjure up doomsday scenarios resulting from such changes, I think it is pretty naive to dismiss catastrophic consequences for what we are doing to change the atmospheric composition.<br />
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Source: <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17611404">BBC News</a></div>
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So, why is Antarctica different? According to <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/how-carbon-dioxide-melted-the-world-1.10393#/b1">another story</a> on the paper its temperatures rose more quickly due to a change in ocean currents that used to carry heat away from the region. For years skeptics have tried to use the inconclusive correlations found in the Antarctic ice cores to claim that the CO2 effects are grossly overstated, but this new study really, truly should put an end to that argument...right?<br />
<br />
Apparently not. The <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/11/nasa-global-warming-letter-astronauts_n_1418017.html?ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=false">second article</a> is a story from just a few days later about a letter sent by 49 former NASA folks, several with high profile titles, criticizing the agency for its "stance" on global warming. It seems crazy to me that 49 people, that are not climate scientists are somehow representative of the other 23,000 <a href="http://www.numberof.net/number%C2%A0of%C2%A0nasa%C2%A0employees/">current employees</a>, much less former employees. This 0.2% of NASA is simply part of the <a href="http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/06/scientists-overwhelmingly-believe-in-man-made-climate-change/1#.T4YGnV1SS3o">3% of all scientists</a> that choose to ignore evidence like that of the first article. How is this balanced reporting?<br />
<br />
As a scientist, I take it kind of personally that this get's any attention at all. It's been frustrating to watch how such a small number of people have eroded what should have been settled years ago. As a result, instead of moving on to what we actually do about CO2 and climate change, we've gone back to basically arguing whether the earth is flat or round. What is more is that I don't even understand why they are fighting it so fiercely. Why should we ignore so much evidence when there are so many other positives for having a carbon neutral economy and <b>zero</b> negatives? Energy independence, less pollution, no more oil spills, no more trapped or killed coal miners, and a whole new wave of innovation and technology are just a few examples from our potential future that this 3% is leading a charge against. Why?<br />
<br />
I think the real fear these folks have is about the upfront cost and their own uncertainty about how changing the status quo would play out. Even though we don't really know what the total upfront cost will be, the reality is that it is not a cost, but rather an investment. The only fear then should be that it will take much longer to recoup the investment and reap the rewards. As the father of a son, with another on the way, I'm far less concerned with when the investment is paid back as I am with being certain that there is a better future for them.<br />
<br />
Those that know me are already aware how strongly I feel about the way to handle problems as a society. I'm afraid that we've become too hypersensitive to "everyone has the right to their own opinion" and "we must allow for balanced reporting". These aren't opinions, these are facts and it isn't balanced when 3% is put on the same level as 97%. I don't feel like I should have to apologize or yield on an issue that I know to be scientifically correct and yet that is just what has been happening in policy debates today. We've given ourselves over to a world based on opinions instead of one based on reality.<br />
<br />
Climate change is only one of many realities we are ignoring. Sustainability on every level of society is at a risk and I think most people feel this and as a result, feel less optimistic about the future. Yet again, in reality, we have all the skills and tools in front of us to fix our problems. All it takes is a little courage and vision to bring it about.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-56387897170931141582011-02-24T17:24:00.002-05:002013-03-21T00:23:10.889-04:00You say you want a revolutionThe year of two thousand and eleven is off to an interesting start. First <a href="http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE71N0IU20110224?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true">Tunisia</a> and then <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12433045">Egypt</a> with <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/24/mideast.africa.unrest/">other</a> countries in Africa and the Middle East seeking to force change. A <a href="http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/219893/ibm_watson_vanquishes_human_jeopardy_foes.html?tk=rel_news">computer impressively won</a> back to back games of Jeopardy and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/us/24marriage.html">President Obama determined</a> that the Defense of Marriage Act was unconstitutional. It hasn't even been two months!<br />
<br />
It's pretty much impossible to see from the ground floor of a revolution, but I wonder if history will look back on this time as one. The real question though is, what will all this change, revolutionary or not, mean? It's a question that seems to be ignored in large part almost as much as the question of what we want our future to look like.<br />
<br />
It's pretty clear the social network and technology we are building has become an important catalyst for change yet it also feels a bit like a loose fire hose that can do damage just as easily as it can prevent it. Figuring out how to operate this new vast machine will likely be the greatest challenge facing our generation.<br />
<br />
It seems that we have built or are in the process of building all the tools we need. Now is the time to figure out what it is we want to create. In other posts as I've marveled at <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/07/riding-exponential.html">the exponential</a> that we are riding and tried to visualize <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2009/05/hang-on-get-ready-and-go.html">one possible future</a>, but I'm increasingly concerned by the lack of discussion and vision. Without direction I fear that the vacuum will be filled not by those with the best ideas, but rather those with the greatest motivation. Now doesn't seem like the time to be on the sidelines, it might just be time for a revolution.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-26523399065410540102010-10-28T11:09:00.000-04:002010-10-28T11:09:22.034-04:00Jon and Barry<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;">This conversation between Jon Stewart and our President is one of the most insightful since Barack Obama gave his <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2008/03/more-perfect-union.html">A More Perfect Union</a> speech. It really is worth watching in it's entirety.</span></span><br />
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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart<br />
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Exclusive - Let's Keep the President Waiting<br />
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www.thedailyshow.com<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/" style="color: #333333; font: 10px arial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Daily Show Full Episodes<br />
</a></td> <td style="padding: 3px; width: 33%;"><br />
<a href="http://www.indecisionforever.com/" style="color: #333333; font: 10px arial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Political Humor<br />
</a></td> <td style="padding: 3px; width: 33%;"><br />
<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/videos/tag/Rally%20to%20Restore%20Sanity" style="color: #333333; font: 10px arial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Rally to Restore Sanity<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/" style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart<br />
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Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td> </tr>
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<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-27-2010/barack-obama-pt--1" style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Barack Obama Pt. 1<br />
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www.thedailyshow.com<br />
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Daily Show Full Episodes<br />
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<a href="http://www.indecisionforever.com/" style="color: #333333; font: 10px arial; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Political Humor<br />
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Rally to Restore Sanity<br />
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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-27-2010/barack-obama-pt--2" style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Barack Obama Pt. 2<br />
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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-27-2010/barack-obama-pt--3" style="color: #333333; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank"><br />
Barack Obama Pt. 3<br />
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Rally to Restore Sanity<br />
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The Daily Show With Jon Stewart<br />
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Moment of Zen - Obama Will Not Be at the Rally<br />
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Rally to Restore Sanity<br />
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</tbody> </table>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-68456478478291108752010-08-06T11:01:00.006-04:002023-04-30T22:27:04.310-04:00The LHC, The Universe, and LifeI came across an older TED talk by Brian Cox, a particle physicist working on a detector for the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), and he does a fantastic job explaining the machine and its purpose. But it was actually the very end of his talk that I think is the most interesting. He quickly explains the universe as a story of creation that I think should resonate with both the religious and scientific perspectives. He mentions a quote from Carl Sagan's Cosmos that puts it well, from the universe emerged consciousness and "At an ever-accelerating pace, it invented writing, cities, art and science, and sent spaceships to the planets and the stars. <b>These are some of the things that hydrogen atoms do, given fifteen billion years of cosmic evolution</b>." I've written a number of times about how remarkable the exponential rate of change we are experiencing is, but I think Brian does an exceptional job of putting it into perspective, making it well worth fifteen minutes out of a single day. If you don't have the time or patience to watch it all, at least skip to 10 minutes 50 seconds to see his story of creation.<br />
<div style="max-width:854px"><div style="position:relative;height:0;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe src="https://embed.ted.com/talks/lang/en/brian_cox_cern_s_supercollider" width="854" height="480" style="position:absolute;left:0;top:0;width:100%;height:100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen></iframe></div></div>
This also led to one of his more recent TED talks on why we need continue investing the tiny fraction (less than 1% GDP) that we do in research. He again closes with a Carl Sagan quote that everyone should hear at least once in their life. Again if you can't manage the sixteen and a half minutes, skip to 12 minutes 45 seconds.<br />
<div style="max-width:854px"><div style="position:relative;height:0;padding-bottom:56.25%"><iframe src="https://embed.ted.com/talks/lang/en/brian_cox_why_we_need_the_explorers" width="854" height="480" style="position:absolute;left:0;top:0;width:100%;height:100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen></iframe></div></div>
I've often wondered what a world where every person deeply believed in the fact that everything in our entire universe came from one single source might be like. I think inherently humanity longs for some form of oneness, but through our own wonderfully unique perspectives we more often only see the differences. Perhaps if there was a deep enough root belief we could find the courage and strength to focus less on the differences and more on how to live in peace. As knowledge of our universe spreads and grows, maybe thoughts like the ones in these short talks will someday help that root take hold.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-10630563852827006952010-07-30T16:20:00.003-04:002016-01-05T02:52:43.164-05:00Riding the Exponential<iframe frameborder="0" height="450" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/embeddedform?formkey=dEUyeElCbVdadjluUXlWaVNIRFNPc3c6MA" width="760">&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Loading...&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</iframe><br />
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Thanks, and please only take it <b>once.</b> Please re-post the link if you don't mind helping out. Read on if you want to know more about why I'm asking, but fair warning, I wax a bit philosophical.<br />
<br />
Having entered the world of parenthood I find myself wondering more and more often about the future that awaits my son. This led me to that very simple question above and as I asked myself, I came to realize that it only mattered so much as to what I believed. It was far more important as to what our society as whole thought. It is our shared belief that is critical since we -as a collective- ultimately shape the future. Pew recently did an <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2010/06/22/public-sees-a-future-full-of-promise-and-peril/">extensive poll</a> on what people thought the year 2050 would be like, but I was curious what those connected to my social network thought.<br />
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My initial expectation is that there will be about a 50/50 split in responses. My intuition, however, is that as our future unfolds, there will be more and more people that are optimistic.<br />
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You can count me among those already optimistic, because even though I believe we've been headed down the wrong path for some time and even though things seem more overwhelming and more polarized than ever. I have many more reasons to be optimistic. This isn't because I believe the answers to all our problems are already out there, it's because I know that they exist as demonstrated by those pivotal points when our society used its great power to create fundamental change. And for these few moments in time, it's all about riding the exponential.<br />
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For some, the concept of exponential growth might be familiar and understandable, but for others it might have a very unclear meaning. Try thinking of it this way. When you are in a car taking an exit ramp that turns, the corner often starts out gradual and then becomes more and more sharp as you come to the end. If you kept the same speed in that corner, you'd feel greater and greater force from the turn. So much so, that you usually need to slow down to keep the tires on the road.<br />
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A roller coaster doesn't have to obey those rules though. That's what makes them so much fun. Since they cling to the track and make use of this force to do loops and spirals. Roller coasters allow you to actually feel more of that exponential, which makes it thrilling for some and terrifying to others. So what are these things we've done right and what makes them exponential?<br />
<br />
Technology is an obvious one. In 1972, 38 years ago, calculators looked like this.<br />
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<a href="http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1122/1388765993_6e9e3fc098_m.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1122/1388765993_6e9e3fc098_m.jpg" /></a></div>
<div about="http://www.flickr.com/photos/35237091544@N01/1388765993" xmlns:cc="http://creativecommons.org/ns#">
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For the majority of the 4,000 years before that they looked more like this:<br />
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Abacus_6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Abacus_6.png" /></a></div>
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A mere 20 years ago we used computers like this:<br />
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/70/Apple-II.jpg/450px-Apple-II.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/70/Apple-II.jpg/450px-Apple-II.jpg" height="120" width="90" /></a></div>
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And just four years ago this was one of the hottest phones:<br />
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<a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/31/Black-RAZRV3-closed.jpg/426px-Black-RAZRV3-closed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/31/Black-RAZRV3-closed.jpg/426px-Black-RAZRV3-closed.jpg" height="100" width="71" /></a></div>
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In just the last few years smart phones that run powerful applications have exploded onto the market and by this time next year they're expected to account for half of the cell phone market. These phones make use of a range of sensors and communication mediums that are radically changing how we interact with the world and they are fully capable of far more than what has already been dreamt up.<br />
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The interesting thing about exponential growth is that the amount of change looks pretty flat when you look at the last few years or even periods not long ago. But if you look at the entire time window, the line pitches straight up at the end. Here's an example showing the rate of change over the entire history of homo sapiens.<br />
<a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/dYl706r5X8vijJn91zt3Zg?feat=embedwebsite"><img height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9y1cGAZH4-v-UcwJsTMUZl7Pdkqg5aUO_2VCP-yiQZ0-C24tf10-n1G0nqHQADbf7u10nBs6H-MrrQ6619IROR0C-kulKlUJCKQlQMFv6y1fJwpIXHGCBYmhnvzw5T6wbPegT/s640/time%20and%20change.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
The point I'm trying to make is that we are already riding an incredible exponential and we need to start learning how to make more sense of what it all means. By the time my son reaches the age of maturity, the change we've seen in the past 20 years will appear as flat to him as the last 100 years were to us (and we think a lot has changed in 100 years). It only grows from there as well. If I am so fortunate, my grandchildren will have a nearly unimaginable range of tools immediately within their reach.<br />
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Having developed so many tools in the decades before us, the next few years will really be about learning how to apply them. Right now there is a big tension between having incredible<b> social</b> connectivity and yet almost zero <b>civic</b> connectivity. Not that it is completely impossible to have some civic connectivity now, but more often than not we have no idea what our government representatives support and they, in turn, are often uninformed of their constituents concerns.<br />
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The networked world has reached a tipping point however, and I believe this civilian connection is going to start taking shape. From simple polls like the one in this post to detailed sites with all the data, models, and descriptions needed to describe the problem as well as the solutions, policy, and legislation. Linking this all together will be no small challenge, but the tools are finally maturing. All we have to do is start developing that vision of how to use them.<br />
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I'll try to keep fumbling through my examples and pointing to cool things already out there, but any thoughts and feedback are always appreciated.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-84274495645854215002010-05-31T22:15:00.002-04:002013-03-21T00:22:11.911-04:00Crime Model VideoI finally was able to post this after learning that Vimeo doesn't have the same lame ten minute restriction that YouTube does. Of course Vimeo doesn't let you embed the HD version so I recommend clicking on the HD icon in the top right and then the link to watch it in HD on their site. Once their make sure you switch to full screen to see it in all its glory. The online model being discussed is available in <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/03/crime-cycles-model.html">this post</a>. The full conference paper is <a href="http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1165.pdf">here</a>.<br />
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<object height="284" width="505"><param name="allowfullscreen" value="true" /><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always" /><param name="movie" value="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=12164486&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=101754&fullscreen=1" /><embed src="http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=12164486&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=101754&fullscreen=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="505" height="284"></embed></object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-80068174354366958082010-03-30T00:56:00.010-04:002013-07-25T16:01:17.174-04:00Crime Cycles ModelThe following is a model that I've been working on as part of my graduate research. Use the story mode to learn about the model structure, and then try a few policies yourself. I'll be posting a video later to explain a little more. The full conference paper is <a href="http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1165.pdf">here</a>.<br />
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Update: The video explaining the model is in <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2010/05/crime-model-video.html">this post.</a><br />
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<div>
<h2>
Cycles of Crime</h2>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2"><a href="http://www.runthemodel.com/models/run.php?popup=1&id=1261" target="_blank"><img alt="Simulation model Cycles of Crime created with AnyLogic - simulation software / " border="0" src="http://www.runthemodel.com/upload/iblock/8d9/8d90498e44fba681427ac4cca99de343.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td style="padding-right: 10px; padding-top: 2px;" valign="top"><a href="http://www.runthemodel.com/models/run.php?id=1261" target="_blank"><img alt="Run the model" border="0" src="http://www.runthemodel.com/img/runthemodel_button.png" /></a></td><td align="right">Developed with<br />
<a href="http://anylogic.com/" target="_blank">AnyLogic</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-6273156636499867672010-01-25T21:22:00.010-05:002010-11-20T23:00:59.100-05:00Simple Population ModelsIn a Master's course last semester I built a model to compare simple population cohort models using System Dynamics and Agent Based Modeling. Someone also asked in the System Dynamics forum if it was possible to embed models in a blog, so I thought I' try it out here. The model below simulates people moving through an aging chain, where at the age group of fecund, they influence the birth rate. Both models produce similar dynamics, but the representations offer a few unique insights on problem formulations. The System Dynamics model is quite a bit easier to build and calibrate, producing good fits to the UN data. The agent model is more complicated and is prone to stochastic effects (which could be smoothed with more agents), but it also more easily allows for additional individual attributes such as gender and wealth. Use the navigation buttons to explore the different implementations and run the model to 2050 to have more time and glimpse of where we might be headed (the population scale is per million people). Note, you'll need to have <a href="http://java.com/en/download/index.jsp">Java</a> and increase the amount of applet memory available to at least 400M. See <a href="http://www.duckware.com/pmvr/howtoincreaseappletmemory.html">this page</a> for a good explanation on how to do this.<br />
<br />
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code="world_population_aging_chain/Simulation$Applet.class"
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pluginsspage="http://java.sun.com/javase/downloads/"> <noembed> <applet
code="world_population_aging_chain/Simulation$Applet.class"
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width="902"
height="718"> </applet> </noembed> </embed> </comment> </object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-36677546457633400282010-01-21T13:02:00.006-05:002010-02-09T12:22:38.477-05:00Cash for Clunkers ImpactWhen this program was rolled out, a friend asked me what the impact on consumption would be. I finally got around to running some of the numbers. Please let me know if you find any mistakes in the math. In summary, the individual benefits are pretty good, but the impact on the country as a whole are easy to dismiss.<br />
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According to the <a href="http://www.cars.gov/files/reports/summary-statistics.pdf">summary statistics</a> from the <a href="http://www.cars.gov/">program web site</a> the average mileage of the new vehicles was 24.9 MPG and the trade-in mileage 15.8 MPG. This means there is an average overall increase of 9.2 MPG, or a 58% improvement. Not bad, right? So for an individual that drives the <a href="http://www.epa.gov/OMS/climate/420f05004.htm">average 12,000 miles per year</a>, the additional 9.2 MPG means they will save 281 gallons per year (note the math is 14,000/24.9 - 14,000/15.8, not 14,000/9.2). Using the <a href="http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/pswrgvwreg.xls">average price of regular</a> for 2009 of $2.31 per gallon, this is a yearly savings of $649 or a monthly savings of $54. So in addition to the tax rebate, buyers have a virtual $54 taken off their monthly car payment, making this a real "no-brainer" for those that had the opportunity to take part. This is especially true if you look at the current gas prices and longer term trend.<br />
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So what was the impact on the country? In total, there were <a href="http://www.cars.gov/files/reports/summary-statistics.pdf">677,081 vehicles replaced</a>, creating a savings of 190 million gallons per year! Sounds pretty great, right? Well it's a start, but when you compare it to the <a href="http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_home#tab2">total United States consumption</a> of 378 million gallons/day, it turns into a drop in the bucket. In numbers, this is only a 0.1% decrease in consumption per year. This is a far cry from the 58% improvement we started with.<br />
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There are some good insights here still. As an individual, when you go to buy another vehicle. Think about the true cost per year. If you get a vehicle that has even a modest MPG improvement, you might be able to afford a larger car payment than you think. Myself for example, if I were to get a Prius, I'd go from about 26 MPG to 48 MPG (highway, which is what I mostly drive). That's a difference of 22 MPG. I also drive around 20,000 miles per year and the 6 month gas price average is $2.56. That means I could save $902 a year or $75 a month. Up next, electric vehicles, but alas my lunch hour is over.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-9903815244338091012010-01-13T09:07:00.005-05:002010-01-13T12:39:24.548-05:00System Dynamics Forum Survey ResultsI wanted to try out the Google Spreadsheets Forms for doing surveys and some questions about the System Dynamics Forum provided a good excuse. Here are the results.<br />
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<iframe src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/viewanalytics?formkey=dGhiRzloTThVZ252NFdoWFlabnZSUWc6MA" width="760" height="1000" frameborder="0" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0">Loading...</iframe>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-20566178362747487012009-10-28T20:48:00.004-04:002013-09-15T02:37:51.235-04:00PerspectiveAs the new year approached last year I reflected on how I didn't readily know how long homo sapiens have been around in <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2008/12/ringing-in-year-of-252009.html">a post</a>. What was most amazing to me wasn't just the 250K years of progress, but the exponential explosion that has occurred in just the last 470 years since the arrival of the Gutenberg printing press. A while after making that post I created the chart below to highlight this remarkable acceleration in the pace of innovation.<br />
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<a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/dYl706r5X8vijJn91zt3Zg?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9y1cGAZH4-v-UcwJsTMUZl7Pdkqg5aUO_2VCP-yiQZ0-C24tf10-n1G0nqHQADbf7u10nBs6H-MrrQ6619IROR0C-kulKlUJCKQlQMFv6y1fJwpIXHGCBYmhnvzw5T6wbPegT/s400/time%20and%20change.jpg" /></a><br />
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Some time later I realized that I also didn't really know the history of life, the earth, the sun, or even our place in the timeline of the universe. As a space nerd I did know that the universe was over 13 billion years old, but I had no idea where we sat in its history. After a little more Wikipedia research and some rough approximations in Power Point I created the image below that puts some of this info into view. With the universe exploding into existence some 13.7 billion years ago, it then took 8.7 billion years before our sun formed. Then in just 500 million years the earth formed, in another billion years the most simple life emerged. For the next 3.27 billion years life would evolve until the rise of the Dinosaurs, which would rule the earth for an astounding 160 million years. It would be another 65 million years before Homo sapiens arrived on the scene with our measly 250,000 years of history.<br />
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<a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/rPvbVYx5qgFdQ3agqDHcpw?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjunKSitpr2gfTn_A3nO_J9xzeM84BbGlw5s1WaAkDJfije8xIju0BcqGBXZr2SK6thmOgGmO_R6VYZk27lm0ZquKr7ZtrBajJfbn3swUiYMZkz_iq64H7w51P4J5eEuUX9DGn1/s800/timeline.jpg" /></a><br />
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So why do I think this kind of information is so important? It's a matter of perspective. As advanced as humans are, we will never fully see reality but instead perceive it through our windows into the world. Understanding the implications of this explains a lot about human behavior. If we were to experience all of reality we'd simply be overwhelmed and unable to make sense of any of it. Instead, through the windows of our senses we sample just a piece of the world at a time. Through our collective we have extended our senses to allow us to see further into reality, be it the depths of space or the smallest of particles, yet we will always be limited to a view through a window. This shouldn't belittle our existence, but rather emphasize both our uniqueness and our belonging to something that is incomprehensibly larger than our perceptions.<br />
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As we struggle through each day to solve our problems big and small, a little perspective might help us all understand what is really important and what is really quite special in our tiny spot in the universe.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-39670853200109482282009-10-28T20:04:00.000-04:002009-10-28T20:04:38.541-04:00Why the $300 Verizon Droid is fantastic deal even before the rebateI've been waiting as patiently as I could the last three years for the smart phone market to develop and I'm thrilled that my wait may finally be over. The <a href="http://phones.verizonwireless.com/motorola/droid/">Verizon Android based phone</a>, the <a href="http://www.motorola.com/Consumers/US-EN/Consumer-Product-and-Services/Mobile-Phones/Motorola-DROID-US-EN">Motorola Droid</a> is the first to deliver on all the features I've been waiting for. As I waited I never bought an mp3/media player, I didn't get a GPS, I got the most out of my 4mp point and shoot camera, I didn't get a <a href="http://www.theflip.com/en-us/">Flip</a> or similar mico HD camcorder, and I didn't buy a PDA. Let's see what I might have spent if I did get all these devices, and to be fair I'll only look at similar spec items. For an MP3/media player, lets go with the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001FA1NCI">4th Gen 8GB iPod nano</a> for $120. Granted the newest can capture video for only $30 more, but this is more about being an early adopter. The Droid also has 16GB of storage, but I'm going to say that half of that will easily be consumed by other things. For GPS I chose the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0014L6RH4">Magellan RoadMate 1430 with traffic</a> for $150. Note that there is monthly fee for traffic, though I couldn't easily get a price. I'll exclude that since you'll have to have a Verizon subscription regardless. A 5mp basic point and shoot camera is pretty obsolete right now, so I'll instead go ahead and combine the camera and video functionality in the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B002A45QVM">Wolverine MM100R</a> for $100. Finally a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Palm-P80707US-PalmOne-Zire-Handheld/dp/B00006JKXN/ref=sr_1_18?ie=UTF8&s=electronics&qid=1256773413&sr=1-18">PalmOne Zire</a> for $150. This brings the total to <b>$520, </b>a full $320 more after the $100 Droid rebate. It is true that I could have had at least some of this functionality for several years now instead of waiting, but I probably would have spent even more since each device started out well over what you can get them for now. The iPhone was certainly very close to what I wanted and I was actually willing to let my Verizon contract expire, but I still wasn't quite happy with the 3G coverage and GPS aspect. When the TomTom iPhone app came out it solved one issue, but still cost even more. Now with Android 2.0 Google has rolled out a kick as turn-by-turn navigator with 3D and satellite views plus traffic and street view where available. Being web enable it's also constantly updated, no map purchases and the ability to find up to date events. Best of all, it's free. Check out the video below to see it in all its glory.<br />
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<object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/tGXK4jKN_jY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/tGXK4jKN_jY&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&feature=player_embedded&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-32439328969407799272009-10-16T12:20:00.002-04:002009-10-16T12:25:13.064-04:00Playing for ChangeA while ago I bookmarked the <a href="http://www.playingforchange.com/">playing for change </a>website. In revisiting it I found some of the episodes deeply moving, perhaps worth buying the DVD. It's a unique project producing songs with musicians around the world. Their mission of peace through music is quite the challenge, but if people of such different cultures who have never met can make something so beautiful, why can't we all? Below is my personal favorite. <a href="http://www.playingforchange.com/episodes/2/Stand_by_Me">Stand by Me</a> is also very good.<br />
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<embed src="http://www.playingforchange.com/player/widget.swf?episode=3" width="460" height="360" allowfullscreen="true" wmode="transparent"></embed>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-10850443001671850532009-09-17T02:12:00.006-04:002009-09-21T08:01:01.505-04:00Liberated ThinkingI recently came across the Shai Agassi's TED talk below on his project <a href="http://www.betterplace.com/">Better Place</a> that <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/charlesulrich">Charlie</a> pointed out to me a while ago. What struck me the most wasn't just the brilliance of the idea of separating the battery cost of full electric cars, but rather his ability to overcome the typical pat on the head he received from some of the countries he approached as they said "it's fascinating that the younger generation actually thinks about these things." In the talk Shai demonstrates an exceptional ability in communicating "back of the envelope" calculations that help to put things in real perspective. While there are numerous conditionals on these kinds of estimates, it really is fundamentally necessary as we begin to think about change in terms of orders of magnitude as opposed to simple linear growth.<br /><br />To further this point, if you look at the comments, on May 5th a Chinese student lamented that he had to have a friend who's English was better help him understand the video and suggested they they include subtitles in other languages. On May 6th there was an acknowledgment from one of the video editors and then in just a week the option to show subtitles with a volunteer powered translation was launched. The video currently has subtitles available in six other languages.<br /><br />Ideas have become viral, spreading exponentially regardless if they are good or bad ones. Our society currently seems poorly equipped for dealing with this scale of change, yet it is also necessary for the future that we've created. I'm currently in the process of writing a proposal (aside from this procrastination) on some of my own ideas on how to handle this kind of transition, but I'll need more than just the idea. I'll have to pursue it with the same passion that drives Shai and survive the inevitable pats on the head that come with the territory.<br /><br /><object height="326" width="446"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/dynamic/ShaiAgassi_2009-medium.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/ShaiAgassi-2009.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=512&introDuration=16500&adDuration=4000&postAdDuration=2000&adKeys=talk=shai_agassi_on_electric_cars;year=2009;theme=a_greener_future;theme=what_s_next_in_tech;theme=tales_of_invention;theme=speaking_at_ted2009;theme=bold_predictions_stern_warnings;event=TED2009;&preAdTag=tconf.ted/embed;tile=1;sz=512x288;"><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#ffffff" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/dynamic/ShaiAgassi_2009-medium.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/ShaiAgassi-2009.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=512&introDuration=16500&adDuration=4000&postAdDuration=2000&adKeys=talk=shai_agassi_on_electric_cars;year=2009;theme=a_greener_future;theme=what_s_next_in_tech;theme=tales_of_invention;theme=speaking_at_ted2009;theme=bold_predictions_stern_warnings;event=TED2009;" height="326" width="446"></embed></object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-43591796750113555672009-05-21T19:27:00.011-04:002013-01-25T10:47:36.585-05:00Hang on, get ready, and goI think that from the moment mankind became self aware, we began to think about about the future as we thought it should be, and then set out to make it so. These changes might often be slow incremental improvements, but every once in a while, it is something really big. Something that sets a course that never would have happened otherwise. Language, fire, text, tools, industry, economics, phones, television, computers, the Internet, and on and on. More and more, faster and faster. Why?<br />
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I think we are about to find out. As we get glimpses of what is possible there are many folks that try and paint an image for us all. Be it in words, film, images, or song there have been many projections about 1) what the future<span style="font-style: italic;"> could</span> be, and 2) what it <span style="font-style: italic;">should</span> be. The former is a motivator and the later must be our guide. It seems that a great deal of attention has been spent on the "what could be" lately. Yet a growing tide of people, either fed up, frightened, optimistic, or otherwise, are starting to focus on what our future really should look like. I would like to try and distill some of those views.<br />
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In my past explorations and posts I discovered many ideas about how the web would transform thinking and the world. From the likes of <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2004/01/well-i-have-been-slacking-little-lately.html">Pierre Teilhard de Chardin and Nova Spivack</a>, <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2004/01/last-thursday-i-met-with-several.html">Tim Berners Lee, Vannevar Bush</a>, and <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2004/03/it-is-amazing-how-quickly-month-can-go.html">Ted Nelson</a>, the ideas came from both modern times and from before the Internet was even a possibility. The Internet and what it shall become is certainly a big part of our future, yet I've often wondered what else it would enable? It is, after all, just another tool.<br />
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I want to imagine a bit of that future and I apologize in advance if it ends up being incoherent or too disconnected. There is a lot I've envisioned over a long time and I can't seem to find any good ways to incrementally get it out.<br />
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<span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">Hang On</span><br />
Life will no longer be about spending nearly all your time getting the tediousness of daily life out of the way so that you can have a few moments to do what inspires you, what you enjoy, and what you love. Food, energy, mobility, and access are givens. All the value in the world is left to discovery, innovation, and contribution. There is no need for conflict, protectionism, and envy, they will have no place in a world with a united purpose.<br />
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Technology has transformed us, is transforming us. In current times, for many in the developed world, food is a given, energy cheap, mobility in all manners, and access to an unlimited wealth of information already at your finger tips. Take a moment and imagine all the technology that makes this possible.<br />
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Now imagine it doubled over a few more times.<br />
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<span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">Get Ready</span><br />
Robots will do all the mindless tasks. They will build everything we can dream up, our cars, our homes, electronics, infrastructure, everything. We must still do the dreaming though. We have to come up with the plans. When we do, it will be a symphony of actions, using all of our technology to put together plans, create funding and measures, and set into motion the great machines that will make it a reality.<br />
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Power lines will stretch over highways, extending the range of electric cars that drive themselves in a manner much more like trains, increasing the throughput of roads, while decreasing travel time and eliminating traffic and safety issues.<br />
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Food will be a distributed operation with millions of local robotic farms and greenhouses that provide fresh produce daily. As will energy with trillions of devices serving both as producers and consumers of energy. Our connectivity will be truly ubiquitous and transparent. Full high definition multi-person video conferencing reducing the need to travel, and when we do travel, we will simply declare a destination and be automatically routed and transported in the most efficient and timely manner.<br />
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Education will be a lifelong opportunity. There will be no cap on public knowledge. One will be able to learn about anything at anytime at any level of detail. Our textbook will be a giant organic collection of knowledge that will adapt to individual learning styles be it, visual, logic, experiential, repetition, or otherwise. It will be available to us anytime through tablets that have <a href="http://www.eink.com/">e-ink</a> displays on one side, and full motion color on the other. They will serve our every digital need. Internet, phone, video, pictures, high resolution camera, music player, hd-video camera, gps, and computing. When you need a larger display and interface you will simply wirelessly connect to stations in our offices and commons.<br />
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Lifelong students will be able to explore any avenue of creativity, since there will be no reason to teach to mediocrity in order to have a workforce to do all the tedious and uncreative jobs. With robots studiously managing all the systematic challenges, we will finally be free to completely explore the depths of human existence.<br />
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We will have mapped out all of fundamental particles of the universe with accelerators like the <a href="http://lhc-milestones.web.cern.ch/LHC-Milestones/Flash/LHCMilestones-en.html">LHC</a> and generations of space telescopes past the <a href="http://lhc-milestones.web.cern.ch/LHC-Milestones/Flash/LHCMilestones-en.html">Hubble</a> and <a href="http://www.jwst.nasa.gov/">James Webb</a> will have seen the dawn of time and discovered thousands of inhabitable worlds in our galaxy alone. We will have reached out into our solar system with permanent exploration of planets and moons. <a href="http://www.spaceward.org/elevator2010">Space elevator</a> tethers will make transport to and from space both a safe and efficient.<br />
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Health care will mostly be provided using sensors and robotic assisted tools in every home, allowing one to deal immediately with emergencies and preventative care. Institutions will have found treatments and cures for all systemic diseases and will carefully manage all evolving forms.<br />
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Conflicts will have long since ended and world travel, trade in music, art, food, culture, and technology will consume our international life. Population growth will have stabilized and consumption turned into an efficient system of recycling and reuse. Life on earth will thrive as pollution and our ecological impact are contained. The economy will be a vast trade in the arts, services, knowledge, and technology.<br />
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Taxes and spending will be clearly and directly tied to our priorities and needs. With all of infrastructure built and maintained by robots, education distributed and flexible, health care instant and efficient, and defense needs minimized, vast resources will be at our collective discretion to support research and projects that continually push the boundaries of our knowledge ever wider.<br />
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All of the information of our life will be neatly organized and accessible. Our interactions with the digital world will be intuitive and natural. The concept of searching will be lost to retrieving exactly what you need. Purchases will simply be what suits your requirements and can be delivered most efficiently and timely. Planning anything from travel to a meal for dinner will be effortless, freeing up vast tracks of time that we currently lose to all the mundane.<br />
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<span style="font-family: arial; font-weight: bold;">Go</span><br />
At first all this may seem simply too far out to even consider, but we must begin to think beyond linear growth and start acknowledging that we are on an exponential. The advances our grandparents have seen are soon to be dwarfed by leaps that we can't even see yet. From that perspective, the above will be what is commonplace and the true innovation will be way beyond our current sense of the possible.<br />
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What is more is that versions of visions like this have been consistently told over and over throughout our history. Some have even given the moment of shift a name and devoted institutions to the concept, such as the <a href="http://singularityu.org/">Singularity University</a>. Yet even with all the gloss and attention, this kind of future is not a guarantee. We still have to define it, still have to seek it, and still have to take action. It all starts by imagining the world as it should be, not as it is, or as it may be given the path we have taken in recent years.<br />
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There already have been many practical steps on everything I've mentioned in this possible future. The key is then to link these steps to our goals. We want to be free from the tyranny of daily life, we want to inspire ourselves and our children to pursue the edges of our existence, and more than anything we want life to flow on, making us all contributors to the shape and form of our universe.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-54965172789640127022009-04-17T20:53:00.010-04:002012-11-29T12:00:25.511-05:00Modeling TrafficI'm approaching three years of making a 50 mile commute to work and in that time I've had a lot of time to think about how bad people are at driving cars. I've also been thinking on ways to make it better. After a truly stimulating week at the MIT Media Lab Sponsor Meeting I've been inspired to finally finish a model I've been kicking around for just about as long. As it turns out there are a number of fantastic insights. I'm going to try and put together a video because it will be a lot easier to explain, but here is the model itself.
<div><h2>Traffic Simulation</h2><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0"><tr><td colspan="2"><a href="http://www.runthemodel.com/models/run.php?id=957" target="_blank"><img border="0" alt="Simulation model Traffic Simulation created with AnyLogic - simulation software / Traffic simulation" src="http://www.runthemodel.com/upload/resize_cache/iblock/df7/320_220_1/df7903499cd332f6e6d98c251274b60e.png"></a></td></tr><tr><td style="padding-right:10px; padding-top: 2px;" valign="top"><a target="_blank" href="http://www.runthemodel.com/models/run.php?id=957"><img alt="Run the model" src="http://www.runthemodel.com/img/runthemodel_button.png" border="0"></a></td><td align="right">Developed with<br><a href="http://anylogic.com">simulation software AnyLogic</a> </td></tr></table></div>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-82945274343123582692009-04-13T14:42:00.014-04:002010-07-21T15:53:03.814-04:00A Very Simple GDP ModelIn all my free time I've been trying to put together a simple example of how to combine data with models and visualization. This is about as simple as you can get; exponential growth through a fixed rate. The US average growth over the last 219 years appears to be about 3.65% (see my earlier post on <a href="http://feedbackgovernsdynamics.blogspot.com/2009/03/putting-recession-in-context.html">Putting the Recession in Context</a>). What's interesting is that that every time we deviated from this average into faster growth, we seem to have fallen back. If you look at the trajectory we were on, it looks like we'll need to fall back to a GDP that is about the size it was in 2006. Now don't call me Nostradamus, but it will be interesting to see where we end up.<br />
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Though that's not the point of this model anyway. In being so simple it is excluding a lot of important details about why the GDP rate has fluctuated the way it has over the last 219 years. Yet this data <span style="font-weight: bold;">is</span> available. What I'd like to see is thousands of Google Spreadsheets with data about anything and everything. People could then link the data to models to try and explain particular parts of the behavior. Be it the rise and fall of real estate markets, the steady slide in US education, or the migratory patterns of birds, I think now is the time to open source our theories on what makes things tick.<br />
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If we can explain where problems are coming from in a clear and concise manner, share it, and provide feedback then perhaps we can finally come up with better solutions.Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-14812104382263096952009-03-25T15:25:00.004-04:002009-03-25T15:48:37.557-04:00White House Open for QuestionsThe White House has launched a web site for open questions that is pretty much the same as what was used for the transition. While an interesting experiment, it is unfortunate that with all promise of developing new web services, they couldn't come up with at least some improvement. My main complaint is that it is chaos. The categories are extremely broad and there are a ton of repeated questions, questions that are too broad (i.e. how are you going to fix the economy?), and many more that are just commentary. What I'd really like to see would be moderator summaries and sub categorization to organize the issues better. All of the original questions could still be linked to where moderators thought they belonged, and if a person still thought it was different then they could still appeal. It'd also be nice to allow people to submit answers or suggestions separately and follow the same process as questions.<br /><br />Anyway, I've submitted a few, I'd appreciate any votes (even it's a no). To find mine, first search the <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/openforquestions/">Open For Questions</a> for: research consortium<br /><br />At last check, two of my questions were the only ones that used that phrase. You can then click on my name to get the rest. You do have to sign up to vote, but it only takes two seconds!<br /><br />Here's Obama's sales pitch on it as well:<br /><object width="445" height="284"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hjJm_Hzc6Yg&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hjJm_Hzc6Yg&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x2b405b&color2=0x6b8ab6&border=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="445" height="284"></embed></object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-58889564896316185942009-03-18T17:59:00.003-04:002009-03-18T18:06:13.226-04:00Tim Berners-Lee on Linked DataTim Berners-Lee gave a pretty compelling talk on demanding linked data. Yet another call out there to turn the corner on the next generation of web technologies that are going to help us solve problems we have too long labeled as impossible.<br /><br /><object width="446" height="326"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"></param> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/TimBerners-Lee_2009-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/TimBerners-Lee-2009.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=484" /><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgColor="#ffffff" width="446" height="326" allowFullScreen="true" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/TimBerners-Lee_2009-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/TimBerners-Lee-2009.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=484"></embed></object>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6288836.post-6601010758515786932009-03-04T20:46:00.009-05:002010-07-30T15:30:59.599-04:00Putting the Recession in ContextGoogle documents has a pretty cool gadget for looking at time-series data. Check it out below. Move the window sliders to narrow the view and then move the view over the past dips in the GDP. What was a huge drop at the time is now only a drop in the bucket. What will a big recession look like now? This is the Google <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pd_ZQeRPwvOG-uEP1_ezMLw&gid=0">Spreadsheet</a>, with data and the gadget in a nicer larger view.<br />
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<script src="https://spreadsheets.google.com/gpub?url=http%3A%2F%2Ftbaoebshgeq225lhq2bam0m0a5mf6u0b-ss-opensocial.googleusercontent.com%2Fgadgets%2Fifr%3Fup__table_query_url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fspreadsheets.google.com%252Ftq%253Frange%253DA1%25253AC412%2526gid%253D2%2526headers%253D-1%2526key%253D0AnaidE2UdpXAcGRfWlFlUlB3dk9HLXVFUDFfZXpNTHc%2526pub%253D1%26up_title%3DUS%2520GDP%26up__table_query_refresh_interval%3D300%26up_scale%3Dmaximize%26up_values_suffix%26up_annotations_width%3D25%26up_display_zoom_buttons%3D0%26up_display_exact_values%3D0%26up_display_annotations_filter%3D0%26up_display_legend_inNewline%3D0%26url%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com%252Fig%252Fmodules%252Ftime-series-line.xml%26container%3Dspreadsheets&height=711&width=1681"></script>Bruce Kaylorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03700833485788617435noreply@blogger.com0